Why a new war in Yemen could be different for the Houthis

The Houthi movement in Yemen has transitioned from mobilisation rhetoric to direct military engagement, signalling a possible return to full-scale conflict after years of de-escalation. On Wednesday, the group claimed responsibility for missile and drone strikes targeting two Saudi vessels in the Red Sea, which they characterised as violations of their imposed blockade on Saudi ports. Simultaneously, fighting erupted between Houthi fighters and forces aligned with Yemen's internationally recognised government along a front line in the southwestern Dhale governorate, resulting in more than 30 casualties across both sides.

The Houthis have demonstrated considerable resilience over the past decade, maintaining control of Yemen's densely populated northwest region, including the capital Sanaa, despite sustained military pressure from the Saudi-led coalition, the Yemeni government, and international actors including the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel. Their territorial holdings and military capabilities have remained largely intact even after years of warfare.

However, the operational landscape has undergone significant transformation since the group's dramatic seizure of Sanaa in September 2014. The consolidation of anti-Houthi forces under government leadership, combined with improved coordination among previously fractious opposition elements, has altered the balance of power. The Yemeni government has also moved to expel the United Arab Emirates and has secured Saudi military backing against separatist groups in the south, positioning itself more favourably than at earlier stages of the conflict.

Experts acknowledge that while the Houthis retain substantial military capacity and influence, renewed warfare would present considerably greater challenges than previous phases of the conflict, given these structural changes in the regional alignment.